Overview
- Researchers at Google and others have shortened the expected arrival of quantum machines that could break current encryption, prompting firms to treat the risk as imminent rather than distant.
- The U.S. Executive Order 14412 sets federal deadlines for post-quantum cryptography and uses NIST-approved algorithms as the benchmark, creating compliance pressure for firms that work with government systems.
- Most blockchains use elliptic-curve cryptography, which a powerful quantum computer could exploit by deriving private keys from public keys and enabling irreversible theft.
- Some projects have published roadmaps and started technical work—Ethereum aims for protection by 2029 and Algorand plans to roll out post-quantum accounts later this year—but none of the top 20 chains have deployed post-quantum signatures yet.
- Engineering trade-offs and costs remain major hurdles because post-quantum signatures are larger and use more resources, custodians and exchanges face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ risks, and estimates show a substantial share of assets could be exposed if upgrades lag.