Overview
- Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Center survey of 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Dec. 9–11 shows Jasmine Crockett at 51% to James Talarico's 43%, with a ±2.45% margin of error.
- Crockett entered the race on Dec. 8 as Colin Allred exited, setting up a March 3, 2026 primary that could proceed to a May runoff if no candidate wins a majority.
- Reporting alleges the NRSC helped seed and amplify early polling to encourage her bid, while Republican leaders such as Tim Scott and Mike Johnson publicly welcomed her candidacy.
- Several House Democrats and strategist James Carville voiced concern she could win the primary but lose statewide, even as Crockett argues her message mobilizes voters typically overlooked.
- Crockett says polling influenced her decision but has not released her internal numbers, and recent statewide matchups still show Republicans leading as Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt vie for the GOP nomination.