Overview
- CRISIL projects the current account deficit at 2.0% of GDP in FY27 if oil averages $82–87 a barrel, compared with 1.5% in its lower-oil base case.
- Oil stays costly, with Brent near $96 and India’s crude basket about $110 this week, pushing up the import bill.
- Goods exports fell 7.4% year over year in March to $38.9 billion as shipments to West Asia slumped almost 58%, with the UAE down 62% and Saudi Arabia down 46%.
- Sales to the United States picked up to $8 billion in March from $6.6 billion in February, which CRISIL links to lower US tariffs on Indian goods.
- ICRA estimates a $10 rise in oil adds 0.30–0.40 percentage points to the deficit-to-GDP ratio, a strain that services exports may only partly cushion.