Overview
- Crisil lifted its FY26 GDP forecast to 7.0%, a 50 bps upgrade driven by resilient domestic demand and policy support, up from 6.5% in FY25.
- The RBI increased its full-year projection to 7.3% after Q2 FY26 growth hit 8.2% year-on-year and first-half expansion was about 8%.
- Retail inflation has fallen sharply, with Crisil projecting CPI at roughly 2.5% for FY26 and the RBI guiding to 2.0% for the year.
- The Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% and the RBI announced open-market purchases alongside a $5 billion USD/INR buy–sell swap to keep liquidity comfortable.
- Crisil cautioned about risks from possible US tariffs, FPI flow volatility and rupee weakness, while expecting Brent crude to average $60–65 per barrel in 2026.