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CPAC Straw Poll Puts Vance in Front as Rubio Surges in 2028 GOP Stakes

The vote signals a two-way contest shaped by the unpopular Iran war.

Overview

  • CPAC’s activist straw poll released Saturday in Texas showed JD Vance at about 53% and Marco Rubio at roughly 35%, with Rubio up sharply from 3% last year.
  • The U.S. campaign in Iran is in its fifth week, with Vance voicing caution about a long fight and Rubio publicly defending the operation as he helps lead foreign policy.
  • Trump’s approval has fallen to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, which researchers link to higher fuel prices and broad disapproval of the Iran war.
  • Trump has privately asked allies “JD or Marco?” about succession, Reuters reported, while the White House denied signaling a favorite and Rubio has said he would not run if Vance does.
  • Debates at CPAC highlighted splits over escalation and possible ground troops, with younger conservatives more skeptical, and the straw poll serving as a mood check rather than a scientific survey.