Overview
- Former viceminister Joaquín Cottani praised the government's managed, gradual depreciation of the dollar and its accumulation of foreign reserves, which he says have passed the US$10 billion mark.
- Cottani described the current expansion as a 'reactivación bipolar' where sectors with access to financing grow while many others remain stuck.
- He said maintaining an orderly exchange rate without a larger depreciation forces very restrictive monetary policy, a choice that can choke wider economic reactivation.
- Cottani warned that seasonal factors, lower foreign-currency inflows and rising private demand to hoard dollars could raise pressure on the exchange rate in the second half of the year.
- Drawing on his experience in the Economy Ministry under Luis Caputo, he concluded that the government's macro steps have reduced near-term risks but do not provide solid grounds to expect a broad, sustained recovery soon.