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Costco’s Membership Model Wins New Buy Rating as Dividend Capacity Expands

Recurring fees power profits to support steady dividend capacity.

Overview

  • Bank of America reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a $1,185 price target, citing pricing strength and customer loyalty.
  • Membership fees generated $5.3 billion last fiscal year, about 64% of profits, with Q1 fee income up 14% to $1.329 billion.
  • Paid memberships reached 81.4 million with 39.7 million Executive Members, while U.S. and Canada renewal rates eased to 92.2% tied to more digital sign-ups and targeted retention is underway.
  • The regular quarterly dividend was raised to $1.30 per share, with an estimated payout near 28% of free cash flow that leaves room for future increases or special dividends.
  • Costco ended Q1 with 921 warehouses and plans 28 net new openings in fiscal 2026, as the stock trades at a premium valuation near 54 times earnings with a market value around $445 billion.