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Cost Shock From Middle East War Slams UK and German Builders, Slows Japan Services

War-linked supply shocks are driving a fresh inflation pulse that threatens jobs and housebuilding.

Overview

  • UK and German construction PMIs, released Thursday, signaled steep April declines with the UK at 39.7 and Germany at 42.1, pointing to contracting activity.
  • UK builders reported a surge in input costs to an index reading of 81.4, the highest since June 2022, as new orders fell sharply and job cuts accelerated.
  • Surveyed firms cited shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that lengthened delivery times to the worst since December 2022 and pushed up fuel surcharges.
  • Japan’s services PMI eased to 51.0 in April from 53.4, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in a year and companies lifting prices to cover higher fuel and staffing bills.
  • The PMIs are diffusion indexes where 50 marks the line between growth and contraction, and the Bank of England is tracking these price signals to judge inflation risks.