Overview
- The peer‑reviewed study published Thursday used 1,000 years of coral data from the Galápagos and found modern eastern‑Pacific ENSO variability is about 36–37% higher than the preindustrial millennium.
- Authors built seasonally resolved temperature records from coral chemistry by measuring strontium‑to‑calcium ratios, oxygen isotopes and uranium‑thorium dates to read month‑by‑month sea surface changes.
- The paper compares the coral reconstruction with climate model runs and concludes the recent amplification exceeds what natural forcing alone would produce, leading the authors to link the change to warming from fossil‑fuel emissions.
- Operational forecast centers now assign very high odds that the 2026–27 El Niño will be a very strong or record‑breaking event, which is expected to peak late 2026 into early 2027 and raise risks of droughts, floods, wildfires and coral bleaching.
- Some climate scientists have welcomed the new long record as critical evidence while others caution the coral signal may partly reflect mean ocean warming or differ from short instrumental trends, leaving questions about mechanisms and precise attribution that require further study and monitoring.