Overview
- Copper prices are pressing back toward January’s peak, with London Metal Exchange futures touching $13,643 a ton and Comex near $6.45 a pound.
- Output is tight after disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the closed Cobre Panama operation, and a setback at Kamoa-Kakula, with Freeport McMoRan reaffirming an early‑2027 restart target for full Grasberg output.
- Refining inputs are strained as the Strait of Hormuz slowdown curbs sulfur flows and China halts sulfuric acid exports from May, a squeeze that J.P. Morgan says threatens about 15% of global copper production.
- Chinese buying and U.S. strategic stockpiling under Project Vault are adding demand even as visible inventories rise to roughly 1.5 million tons, much of it parked in U.S. warehouses that hold an estimated 730,000 to 830,000 tons.
- Analysts now flag a 2026 deficit ranging from about 150,000 to 600,000 tons, and traders say copper’s trend has decoupled from the Iran conflict even after President Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal.