Overview
- Prices reached new highs on Aug. 6, 2026, with U.S. copper futures touching about $6.90 a pound before settling, marking the strongest move in the run-up to early August.
- The rally is driven mainly by constrained mine supply and recent production disruptions in Chile and Indonesia that have cut available refined metal.
- Global stockpiles have shifted geographically, with Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories plunging about 82% since May while COMEX warehouses in the U.S. have swelled to record levels.
- Policy moves are reshaping flows: President Donald Trump’s tariff threat has accelerated shipments into U.S. warehouses and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ban on concentrate exports has removed more material from global markets.
- Market structure shows acute short‑term stress—LME cash premia widened into backwardation—but analysts warn that a policy reversal, stronger Chinese output, or easing disruptions could quickly ease prices while long lead times keep new mine supply slow to respond.