Cook Says 'Really Bad' Midterm Scenario Now the Most Likely Outcome for GOP

Overview

• Charlie Cook now judges his middle forecast—the loss of 26 to 35 House seats and four to five Senate seats—as the most likely result for Republicans.
• Cook bases that view on state surveys showing President Trump running about six to 14 points below his 2024 vote share, an average shortfall of roughly 10 points that weakens GOP standing with independents and women.
• Races in states long considered safely Republican, including Alaska, Iowa and Texas and possibly Kansas, have become unexpectedly competitive and could flip key seats.
• Republican operatives still control large campaign funds and pro‑Trump groups such as MAGA Inc. are buying targeted ads, but internal fights over Trump’s involvement complicate efforts to defend vulnerable candidates.
• If Cook’s forecast holds, Democrats would likely gain many House seats and could retake the Senate, a shift that would reshape policy on tariffs, farm costs and responses to foreign strikes while turnout and late ad spending remain the main wild cards.