Overview
- Cook Political Report moved both the Texas and Iowa Senate contests from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Thursday, August 20, 2026, reflecting closer public and private polling.
- In Texas, GOP nominee Ken Paxton faces fundraising shortfalls and a long history of scandals, including a past impeachment process, and Cook says he is trailing or underperforming in multiple surveys.
- In Iowa, polls show a razor‑thin race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, with state economic pressures cited as a factor tightening the contest.
- Cook also adjusted governor ratings by moving Texas from Solid Republican to Likely Republican and Iowa from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, which could reshape where parties spend money and run ads.
- The shifts matter because Democrats need at least four pickups for a Senate majority, and Cook’s unusually cautious move signals both a narrower GOP map and the need to watch fundraising, ad buys, endorsements, and new polls closely.