Overview
- Cook Political Report, which updated its ratings Monday, moved Georgia and North Carolina to Lean Democrat, shifted Ohio to Toss Up, and nudged Nebraska to Likely Republican.
- Despite the leftward movement, Cook says Republicans remain slight favorites to keep the chamber and pegs the most likely outcome as a one to three seat Democratic gain, short of the four needed for a majority.
- Analyst Jessica Taylor tied the changes to voter unease with high prices and gas costs, an unresolved war in Iran, and the president’s low job ratings, while stressing the outlook can still shift.
- Recent polling helps explain the moves, with Jon Ossoff leading several GOP hopefuls in Georgia, Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley in North Carolina, razor-thin results in Ohio between Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted, and a Democratic internal showing Pete Ricketts only one point up on independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska.
- New fundraising reports this week point to strong Democratic money momentum, with Ossoff topping $14 million in the first quarter, Cooper raising $13.8 million, and Brown bringing in $12.5 million for his Ohio comeback bid.