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5h ago

Cook Declares Texas Senate a Toss-Up as Abbott Publicly Backs Ken Paxton

The rating change raises the stakes for November by underscoring Paxton's fundraising problems, with the contest capable of deciding control of the U.S. Senate.

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WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 08: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) walks through the hallway in the U.S. Capitol on August 08, 2026 in Washington, DC. Senators are working through the night, with another series of votes expected including one on U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for attorney general, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
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Overview

  • Cook Political Report moved the Texas U.S. Senate race to a “toss-up” on Aug. 23, a formal shift that signals the contest has become genuinely competitive.
  • Gov. Greg Abbott used an Aug. 23 interview to defend Paxton, arguing voters will choose Paxton after learning about Democrat James Talarico's record and seeking to calm GOP donors and activists.
  • Paxton is struggling to raise money after a costly three-month Republican runoff and reports that Senate GOP fundraising arms are withholding support, leaving Talarico with stronger early ad presence in some markets.
  • Recent polls show narrow margins or ties with Talarico ahead among Black, Latino and independent voters while Paxton does better with white and older voters, making turnout and late spending decisive.
  • The tightening statewide picture has raised pressure on Abbott's own campaign, focused attention on local issues like data centers, and created a scenario where a Texas pickup could influence control of the U.S. Senate.