Overview
- Party researchers applied OBR net migration projections for 2026–2030 and ONS average household size to estimate the housing demand from new arrivals.
- The OBR projects almost 1.2 million net migrants over that period, a key input underpinning the calculation.
- The Conservatives say this implies about 499,000 additional homes for migrants out of roughly 1.34 million builds expected, equating to around 37% rising to 39% by 2030.
- Government figures cited in coverage suggest migration-driven demand could add about £9,489 to the average home price.
- Shadow ministers Chris Philp and Sir James Cleverly linked high immigration to pressures on rents and access to new homes, while a government spokesman highlighted the 1.5 million-home goal and claimed net migration is down nearly 70%.