Overview
- House members introduced the bipartisan PREDICT Act on Wednesday, which would prohibit Congress, the president, the vice president, political appointees, and their spouses and dependents from betting on government outcomes on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, with a 10% civil fine and full disgorgement of profits.
- Representative Seth Moulton imposed an immediate office policy Wednesday that bars all of his staff from trading or holding positions on political or geopolitical markets, citing a threat to public trust from bets tied to policy and war.
- Kalshi and Polymarket updated rules Monday to curb insider trades, with Kalshi blocking people who have a stake in an event and adding whistleblower tools, and Polymarket banning trades based on stolen or confidential information or by users who can influence outcomes.
- Federal oversight remains contested as the CFTC says insider‑trading laws already apply and highlights its surveillance tools, while a Nevada judge temporarily restricted Kalshi from offering event contracts without a state license in a sign of state‑federal friction.
- Investigations cited linked Polymarket wallets that earned nearly $1 million on Iran‑strike timing and a separate $400,000 win tied to Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, and experts warn on‑chain settlement, VPNs, and offshore registration make detection and prosecution harder.