Overview
- With primaries set for Tuesday, Sept. 8, Rep. Chris Pappas remains the favorite but a University of New Hampshire poll showed him at 47% to Karishma Manzur’s 34% with 18% undecided, narrowing what had been a wide lead.
- Manzur has focused her challenge on Pappas’s past ties to AIPAC and corporate PAC money, forcing Pappas to downplay previous associations and publicly call for a 'reset' in U.S.-Israel policy.
- National handicappers and recent polls have moved the prospective Pappas–Sununu general election into highly competitive terrain, with some surveys showing John E. Sununu narrowly ahead and Inside Elections listing the seat as a toss-up.
- Analysts say the primary hinges on turnout differences because Manzur draws strong support from younger progressive voters while Pappas’s base is older voters who historically turn out at higher rates.
- Shaheen’s retirement opened the seat and the close contests on both sides mean the outcome could force Democrats to divert resources to hold New Hampshire and shape control of the Senate this November.