Overview
- As of Thursday, June 18, three types of forecasts coexist: Matillion’s Maia simulations put Spain top at 6.87% from 10,000 runs, Dr Ari Joury’s 11‑model ensemble averages Spain highest while listing England at about 9%, and BetMGM market odds show France as the betting favorite after early matches.
- Dr Ari Joury built an ensemble of 11 different predictive models that produced four different champion picks, did not select England in any single model, and averaged England’s chance at roughly nine percent to reflect model variation.
- A Maia‑based AI workflow rebuilt and tested multiple model variants in hours, ran 10,000 tournament simulations, and used an Elo foundation plus expected goals and travel/rest adjustments to produce the Spain 6.87% figure.
- Betting markets have reacted to early results — notably Spain’s 0‑0 draw with Cape Verde — shifting sentiment in real time and moving France above Spain and England in BetMGM odds.
- All forecasts show low absolute top‑team probabilities, meaning favorites are still unlikely to win; the larger 48‑team format raises variance and the AI speed of model iteration is increasing the number of conflicting forecasts without reducing core uncertainty.