Colts Bet on Daniel Jones Despite 2025 Regression and Major Injuries

The Colts signed Jones to a two-year, $88 million deal as a vote of confidence in Shane Steichen's system.

Overview

Early in the 2025 season Jones produced a dramatic breakout, ranking among the NFL leaders in completion rate, yards per dropback and EPA during the first seven to ten games.
That surge cooled as defenses adjusted and his pressure-to-sack numbers rose, and the season ended after a fractured fibula before Week 12 and a season‑ending Achilles tear in Week 14 that preceded a seven-game losing streak.
Indianapolis re-signed Jones this offseason on a two-year, $88 million contract, a move the team says reflects belief in the coaching fit and the chance to get similar offensive production if he is healthy.
Analysts and advanced metrics warn the 2025 peak was partly driven by unusually strong results under pressure that are statistically volatile and unlikely to be fully repeatable.
Pro Football Focus data show the Colts had one of the league's best offenses even excluding Jones, so Jones's recovery, roster changes such as the loss of Michael Pittman and Braden Smith, and Steichen's ability to adjust will determine how much the team actually gains from the new deal.