Overview
- Colombia will decide its next president in a runoff on Sunday, June 21 between right‑leaning Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Iván Cepeda.
- Pacific Investment Management Co. bought about US$2.0 billion of Colombian local debt in May and now holds roughly 30% of the US$43 billion in locally issued bonds owned by foreigners, according to government data analyzed by Bloomberg.
- Peso‑denominated bonds have rallied since the first round, gaining over 11% in the month and pushing 10‑year yields down roughly 2.5 percentage points from mid‑May highs.
- The candidates offer sharply different plans: De la Espriella proposes dollarization, broad fracking, deep public‑sector cuts and hardline security measures and has backing from President Trump, while Cepeda favors state‑led growth, expanded social programs, rural investment and an anti‑fracking energy transition.
- Structural limits constrain either path because public debt is about 64% of GDP, the fiscal deficit is near 7% of GDP and Colombia faces weak growth, persistent informality, rising violence and climate vulnerability, all of which could rework investor flows and prompt social unrest depending on the election outcome.