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CoinShares Says Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Is Distant, Not Immediate

Only around 10,000 coins in older exposed outputs are seen as realistically targetable in a way that could move markets.

Overview

  • The research places cryptographically relevant quantum machines at least a decade away, requiring millions of fault‑tolerant qubits versus today’s roughly 105‑qubit devices such as Google’s Willow.
  • Roughly 1.6–1.7 million BTC sit in legacy P2PK addresses, but most are dispersed across more than 32,000 small UTXOs, making large, fast thefts impractical.
  • Modern address types keep public keys concealed until spending, which limits exposure and would require an attacker to solve computations within minutes to intercept live transactions.
  • CoinShares recommends a phased migration to post‑quantum signatures through routine upgrades and warns that premature hard forks or untested schemes could introduce bugs or fragmentation.
  • Commentators note that a quantum capability strong enough to break Bitcoin’s signatures would also threaten banking systems, government secrets, and military communications.