Overview
- Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal said in a Wednesday Fox Business interview that negotiators are very close to resolving the bill’s stablecoin yield fight and that progress could come within 48 hours.
- A revised Senate draft under private review would bar passive interest on idle stablecoin balances while allowing narrowly defined activity-linked rewards, with banks and crypto firms seeing the text in controlled sessions.
- TD Cowen now pegs the bill’s 2026 passage odds at about one in three, while prediction markets show roughly even chances, with recent readings between 51% and 65%.
- Banks warn that stablecoin rewards could pull deposits from insured accounts, but Grewal said there is no evidence of deposit flight to stablecoins.
- The CLARITY Act would set who regulates which tokens and trading venues by dividing roles between the SEC and CFTC, and its outcome will shape whether U.S. users can earn returns on digital dollars and how banks and exchanges compete for cash balances.