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Coffee Prices Set a New Normal as Chains Shun Cuts and Drinkers Shift to Home Brew

Analysts say £5 cups are approaching, with climate shocks plus higher wages locking in menu inflation.

Overview

  • Caffè Nero’s Gerry Ford said cafes are unlikely to reduce prices even if bean costs ease, opting instead for longer gaps between increases.
  • Sector researchers forecast £5 as routine for standard coffees within a few years in the UK, reinforcing expectations of sustained high menus.
  • Arabica prices have surged on weather-hit harvests and trade costs, while milk, energy, labour and shipping expenses are anchoring higher retail prices.
  • Consumer behavior is shifting as 37% report making more coffee at home in a Citigroup survey, own‑label shares rise, and UK coffee-machine sales jumped 43% during Black Friday.
  • Lower-cost drive‑through and convenience outlets are gaining visits as per‑store traffic declines at some big chains, though Caffè Nero reports rising sales and plans further UK expansion.