Overview
- Exchange-traded cocoa has fallen to near pre-crisis levels, with the ICCO benchmark around €3,500 per tonne and futures dropping below $4,000.
- Major German grocers reduced private-label bar prices by €0.10, putting milk chocolate at €0.89 and whole-hazelnut bars at €1.29.
- Larger harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana lifted exports and eased raw material costs, with brokers also noting added supply from Ecuador.
- Demand has cooled: NIQ reports a 5.8% drop in chocolate packs sold in 2025, and Barry Callebaut’s cocoa sales volumes fell about 22% in its latest quarter.
- StoneX projects market surpluses of roughly 287,000 tonnes in 2025/26 and 267,000 tonnes in 2026/27 as Commerzbank expects inventories to rebuild toward historical norms.