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Coca‑Cola FEMSA Tops Q4, Shares Jump as 2026 Outlook Cuts CapEx and Flags Mexico Volume Hit

The company is trimming investment after capacity expansions as higher soda taxes are set to weigh on demand in Mexico.

Overview

  • Coca‑Cola FEMSA reported Q4 2025 revenue of 77,750 million pesos, EBITDA of 18,169 million, operating income of 13,702 million and net income of 7,501 million, beating forecasts as shares rose about 4% on the BMV and ADRs gained roughly 3.5%.
  • Quarterly volume reached 1,093 million unit cases, up 1.3% year over year, with the CEO noting record December levels across the company’s four main operations.
  • Management guided 2026 capital spending to 7–7.5% of revenue, likely near the low end, following completed expansions in Mexico’s southeast and in Brazil; 2025 CapEx was 8.2% of revenue (about 23,923 million pesos).
  • The company expects low‑to‑mid single‑digit volume declines in Mexico in 2026 as price increases offset higher IEPS, now 3.0818 pesos per liter for sugary drinks and 1.50 pesos for non‑caloric beverages, with pricing moves to be taken cautiously and informed by 2014 tax lessons.
  • To counter pressure, KOF plans to lean on revenue management, FIFA World Cup brand exposure and digital initiatives, while full‑year 2025 results showed revenue up 4.3% on higher price per case despite a 1.8% volume drop.