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3w ago

Cobolli Meets Tien on Chatrier as Odds and Models Split Predictions

Bookmakers list Flavio Cobolli the favorite despite form-based projections that give Learner Tien the stronger chance to win.

Tennis - French Open - Roland Garros, Paris, France - May 30, 2026 Italy's Flavio Cobolli shakes hands with Learner Tien of the U.S. after winning their third round match REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
Tennis - French Open - Roland Garros, Paris, France - May 30, 2026 Italy's Flavio Cobolli in action during his third round match against Learner Tien of the U.S. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
Tennis - French Open - Roland Garros, Paris, France - May 30, 2026 Learner Tien of the U.S. in action during his third round match against Italy's Flavio Cobolli REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane
Tennis - French Open - Roland Garros, Paris, France - May 30, 2026 Italy's Flavio Cobolli in action during his third round match against Learner Tien of the U.S. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane

Overview

  • Flavio Cobolli and Learner Tien are scheduled to play a French Open third-round match on Saturday on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
  • Betting markets show Cobolli as the favorite at roughly -220, a stance based on his higher ranking and recent straight-set wins in Paris.
  • Analytical projections and a gambling-site model favor Tien, estimating about a 67% chance of victory after his Geneva title and two clay wins at Roland Garros.
  • Matteo Berrettini is set to face Francisco Comesana in another third-round match with previews and picks strongly favoring Berrettini to progress.
  • With several top seeds out of the top half of the draw, these third-round results could reshape who emerges as a contender from that section and open paths to the late rounds.