Overview
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten called the New Jersey and Virginia contests the biggest warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
- Prediction-market averages cited by Enten give Democrat Mikie Sherrill an 89% chance against Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Democrat Abigail Spanberger a 94% chance against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia.
- Recent polling shows Democrats holding high single-digit leads in both states, a stronger position than at this point in 2021.
- Enten highlighted a historical pattern in which the party that wins both governorships has gone on to win the U.S. House the next year six of seven times since 1989.
- He also noted Democratic overperformance in 2025 special and legislative elections by roughly 15 points versus 2024 benchmarks, including a recent Iowa state Senate flip.