CMFRI Warns El Niño Could Cut Indian Oil Sardine Stocks in 2027

Overview

• CMFRI director Grinson George warned Friday that El Niño warming is expected to strengthen in October–December 2026 and that effects are likely to reach the northern Indian Ocean by April–May 2027.
• The institute projects a high probability of marine heatwaves, elevated sea surface temperatures, and higher salinity during April and May 2027 based on established climate information.
• CMFRI says small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable and that available stocks, which are abundant this year, could decline sharply in 2027 if the warming occurs.
• Sustained warming could cause coral bleaching, reduce reef species such as red snapper, and disrupt coastal aquaculture through sudden salinity swings after heavy rains, threatening coastal incomes.
• To reduce risk CMFRI will publish advisories this year, urge continuous ocean monitoring, and promote adaptive practices such as informed fishing decisions, cage farming guidance, and seed-management measures.