CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Sinks to 14-Month Low as Basis Trade Unwinds

Overview

• CME bitcoin futures open interest fell to about $7.2 billion in early April, the lowest since February 2024, with March volume down to $163 billion.
• The drop tracks the unwind of the cash-and-carry trade, where funds bought spot via ETFs and shorted CME futures, because the annualized spread shrank to roughly 5% near the 4.5% risk-free rate.
• Binance has overtaken CME in bitcoin futures share as trading shifts to offshore perpetual-swap venues that use ongoing funding payments instead of expiries and cater more to retail traders.
• Derivatives data show a leverage flush, with the 7-day change in open interest near minus 3% by April 13 and funding rates flipping negative.
• Spot demand has held up, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs taking in over $816 million last week and Strategy Inc. (MSTR) buying 13,927 BTC, yet the Fear and Greed Index sits at 12 for a 46th straight day.