Overview
- WCRP researchers updated the models used to map possible futures and now judge the long‑used worst‑case pathway unlikely because renewables have spread faster and become cheaper.
- Experts say the change is not a green light, since the revised high‑end path still points to about 3.5°C of warming by 2100 with very severe impacts and higher odds of tipping points.
- The most optimistic path now expects a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit, a shift driven by recent rises in planet‑heating emissions.
- UNEP’s latest assessment keeps the world on roughly a 2.8°C track by 2100, which signals that large mid‑range risks remain even with cleaner energy growth.
- President Donald Trump and some right‑wing outlets cast the update as proof that climate warnings were wrong, and scientists countered that view and urged faster cuts, adaptation, and CO2 removal.