Overview
- Senators and staff say negotiators will publish merged CLARITY Act text around the July 4 holiday for a planned July floor push, but the Senate has not scheduled a vote and returns July 13 for a narrow window of floor days.
- The White House has arranged meetings with law enforcement groups to address objections to Section 604, which would limit when noncustodial software developers are treated as money transmitters.
- Market and policy analysts have cut 2026 passage odds to roughly 50% as leadership faces crowded floor time, competing must‑pass bills and the need to secure 60 votes to clear cloture.
- Key unresolved policy fights include draft ethics rules tied to President Trump’s crypto interests, strengthened AML/Bank Secrecy Act language, limits on stablecoin yield and how DeFi protocols are treated.
- If the bill stalls, legal uncertainty over which tokens fall under SEC versus CFTC authority and new market rules would likely persist into 2027, prolonging investor and industry volatility and slowing institutional crypto plans.