Overview
- Prediction-market odds for passage in 2026 fell to roughly 50% on Polymarket after topping 80% last week, with Kalshi showing 44% before May and 60% before June.
- The unresolved dispute centers on whether idle stablecoin balances can receive yield, with drafts exploring activity-linked rewards rather than interest on passive holdings.
- Banking groups warn that allowing competitive returns on stablecoins could accelerate deposit outflows, with some citing potential losses approaching $500 billion by 2028.
- White House adviser Patrick Witt said talks took a big step forward and signaled confidence the informal deadline can be met if engagement continues in good faith.
- Signals remain mixed as Ripple’s CEO puts the odds of enactment by April at 90% while Coinbase’s chief cites a short list of open items and says a compromise could move a bill to the President within months.