Overview
- As of June 29, 2026 the CLARITY Act sits on the Senate legislative calendar with no scheduled floor vote and very limited weeks left before the August recess.
- Senate leaders say a full vote could proceed once negotiators publish a merged Banking and Agriculture text and leadership commits floor time, with a draft reportedly aimed for public release around July 4.
- Analysts and markets have pared expectations for 2026 passage, with Galaxy Research lowering its odds to 50% and Polymarket traders assigning roughly a 41% probability.
- Key policy disputes remain unresolved, notably enforceable ethics language, limits on stablecoin yields, and developer protections in Section 604, while the Justice Department has said the bill would not weaken prosecutors’ ability to pursue crypto crimes.
- If the Senate cannot clear floor time the bill will likely slip to the fall because it still needs an amendment process, about 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, reconciliation with the House, and the president’s signature, a delay that could push crypto firms to favor jurisdictions with clearer rules.