Overview
- Senators missed a late June–July target to finish the bill and are now working on a compressed timetable to move before the Senate’s August 7 recess.
- Three core disputes block progress: enforceable ethics rules tied to President Trump’s disclosed crypto income, Section 604 protections for non‑custodial developers, and language on stablecoin yields and AML duties.
- Senate procedure requires invoking cloture with roughly 60 votes and merging competing Banking and Agriculture committee texts before a floor vote can proceed.
- Major law‑enforcement groups have softened opposition, but the SEC has put multiple crypto rulemakings on its 2026 agenda that could change market rules if Congress delays.
- Markets and analysts have cut 2026 passage odds to roughly the mid‑40s to low‑60% range, and a missed August deadline would likely defer final action and the regulatory certainty firms seek until 2027.