Overview
- The CIS projects the PP at 38.5% of the vote and 25–29 seats, leaving it below the 33 required for an outright majority in the 65-seat Assembly.
- The PSOE falls to an estimated 31.6% and 19–22 seats as its candidate, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, faces legal proceedings over the Badajoz hiring case.
- Vox is forecast at 17.3% and 10–12 seats, roughly doubling its 2023 result, while Unidas por Extremadura would rise to 6–7 seats with 9.6%.
- Based on these numbers, the PP would need Vox’s support or a PSOE abstention to form a stable government.
- Fieldwork ran November 21–25 with 2,037 interviews and about 16% undecided; María Guardiola is the only candidate to earn a passing approval score and is the most preferred to remain president.