Overview
- The CIS estimates PSOE at 32.6% and PP at 22.9%, a 9.7‑point lead for the Socialists.
- Vox rises to 18.9% (+1.2 points versus January), while Sumar slips to about 7.0% and Podemos edges up to roughly 3.9%.
- The survey was conducted February 2–6, overlapping the Aragón campaign’s final stretch and coinciding with severe flooding in Andalusia and reaction to the immigration regularization pact.
- This is the first barometer since the Adamuz rail disaster, reported with 46 or 47 fatalities, and the results indicate no measurable hit to PSOE support.
- In Aragón’s February 8 election, the PP won but lost two seats as Vox doubled its representation, increasing the PP’s dependence on Vox and contrasting with the pre‑election national snapshot.