Overview
- Counterpoint Research on Monday projected a 13.9% fall in 2026 smartphone shipments to about 1.08 billion units, a downgrade that IDC independently echoed in a similar forecast.
- The shortfall centers on DRAM and NAND memory, which chipmakers have shifted toward AI and data‑center work and which Reuters and industry analysts say have been further strained by Iran-related supply disruptions.
- Wholesale smartphone prices rose about 14% in Q1 as inventories bought before the shortage ran down, and Counterpoint warns some models priced under $150 could disappear from the market.
- Low‑end and mid‑tier makers face the biggest hits, with Counterpoint forecasting sharp shipment drops for Transsion, Xiaomi and Honor while premium vendors such as Apple and Samsung show far more resilience.
- Analysts expect the squeeze to carry into 2027, a dynamic that boosts memory suppliers like Samsung Semiconductor and SK Hynix but risks lasting damage to volume-driven phone makers and to consumers in emerging markets.