Overview
- The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative published its first systematic report on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, compiling open‑source data to document non‑US extra‑regional naval and air activity in the Western Pacific in 2025.
- SCSPI's incomplete tallies say roughly 200 warships from 18 extra‑regional countries generated about 10,000 ship‑days of presence in the region, while extra‑regional air forces logged about 1,500 sorties and nearly 900 transport flights outside the large US total.
- The report highlights a rise in Taiwan Strait transits by non‑regional navies, noting that six warships from Australia, Canada, the UK and New Zealand made five transits in 2025 as governments publicly announced those moves.
- SCSPI singles out disputed encounters between China and Australia in February and October 2025 as examples of incidents that increase the chance of miscalculation, and it urges resolving such disputes through dialogue rather than military escalation.
- The think tank stresses its figures are based on open sources and are likely incomplete because of turned‑off transponders and false identifiers, and Beijing framed the findings via state‑affiliated Global Times to argue these deployments largely target China.