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4d ago

China's Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus Shifts Pressure to Europe

European leaders are preparing tougher trade defenses in response to the imbalance.

Employees work at the production line at an intelligent packaging workshop of Mengniu Dairy, in Suqian, Jiangsu Province of China, on December 2, 2025.
We could be looking at a ‘second China shock’
Cranes unload cargo shipping containers from the Evergreen Line Ever Mast container ship as seen from the Vincent Thomas bridge at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, on April 15, 2025.
People ride scooters past the Yantian port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China, on October 30, 2025.

Overview

  • Official data show China amassed roughly $1 trillion in goods trade surplus through November, with exports up 5.7% as sales to Europe (+8.9%), Southeast Asia (+14.6%) and Africa (+27.2%) offset an 18.3% drop to the United States.
  • The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China reported that rising Chinese exports and persistent business-environment concerns are pushing Brussels toward a more "offensive" China policy.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron warned the European Union could impose tariffs if trade imbalances persist, signaling potential escalation in EU trade defenses.
  • The International Monetary Fund attributed part of the imbalance to a real depreciation of the yuan and urged Beijing to spur consumption and allow greater exchange-rate flexibility.
  • Economists cite weak domestic demand, property-sector stress and industrial overcapacity holding back imports—up just 0.2% in the first 11 months—and note rerouting and transshipment that complicate tariff enforcement.