Overview
- China’s economy grew 5.0% year over year, with output up 1.3% from the prior quarter, after Thursday’s official release beat expectations of about 4.8%.
- Export strength and industry led the beat, with first‑quarter shipments up 14.7% and March industrial production rising 5.7% from a year earlier.
- Domestic demand stayed weak as March retail sales rose just 1.7% and January–March property investment fell 11.2%, while overall fixed‑asset investment edged up 1.7%.
- Early signs of the Iran war’s fallout are showing as March exports slowed to 2.5% and factory‑gate prices turned positive for the first time in more than three years, pointing to higher input costs for manufacturers.
- Officials called the external backdrop more volatile and many economists see Q1 as a pre‑shock snapshot, expecting growth to ease and policy to stay cautious as China targets 4.5%–5.0% in 2026 and relies on oil reserves and price controls to cushion energy strains.