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China's Population Falls for Fourth Year as Birth Rate Hits Record Low

Analysts say modest incentives fail to shift deep drivers of low fertility.

Overview

  • Official 2025 data show 7.92 million births, down 17% from 2024, with a crude birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000, the lowest recorded since 1949.
  • Deaths rose to 11.31 million, leaving the population at about 1.404 billion after a net decline of roughly 3.39 million.
  • People aged 60 and over reached about 323 million, or 23% of the population, intensifying pressure on the workforce and pensions.
  • Beijing rolled out cash payments of 3,600 yuan per child, imposed a 13% VAT on contraceptives, and expanded tax breaks for childcare and matchmaking, alongside steps to raise the retirement age.
  • China reported 5% GDP growth for 2025, yet economists warn high child-rearing costs, housing and education expenses, weak job prospects, and lower marriage rates are keeping fertility very low.