Overview
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday that the official manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July but remained below 50, marking a second consecutive month of contraction.
- The official non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, stayed at 49.0 in August, showing no recovery in consumer-facing sectors and persistent weakness in the property-linked services that drag on domestic demand.
- Export-facing strength lifted subindices for new orders and production into expansion in August, and July trade data showed exports up sharply year-on-year driven by demand for semiconductors, AI infrastructure components and electric-vehicle parts.
- Private Caixin/RatingDog survey readings are expected to show expansion around 51.0, reflecting better conditions at smaller, export-oriented firms and highlighting a split between state-weighted and private-sector measures.
- Policy pressure is mixed because exporters are holding some parts of manufacturing up; the key near-term watch-points are the Caixin PMI release, September factory and consumption data, and whether Beijing rolls out targeted fiscal or credit support for weaker domestic sectors.