Overview
- Official data released on Monday showed the National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, which still signals contraction because readings below 50 mean more firms reported worsening conditions than improving ones.
- A private S&P/RatingDog survey for August registered 51.5, meaning smaller, export‑oriented firms reported expansion and creating a split between large/state firms and nimble exporters.
- The official non‑manufacturing PMI held at 49.0, showing services and construction remain in contraction and confirming weak consumer spending and falling property investment are holding back the broader economy.
- Typhoon disruptions in southern and eastern China, plus strong global demand for AI‑related chips, EVs and green tech, helped explain the divergence by denting domestic orders while boosting some export orders.
- Policymakers have signalled readiness to act with targeted fiscal and monetary measures if weakness persists, but economists expect any support to be modest, which could leave consumers and local governments to shoulder much of the short‑term adjustment.