Overview
- The National Bureau of Statistics released sample results showing 15.87% of the population is aged 65 or over compared with 15.25% aged 0–14, a finding drawn from a nationwide mini-census sample covering roughly 1% of residents or more than 20 million people.
- The survey also found the 15–59 working-age share has fallen to 61.89%, and official data show births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025 with the population shrinking by 3.39 million that year.
- Beijing has responded with cross-department measures, including a 15-department blueprint to build 'youth-development-oriented cities' and a 2026–2030 plan to create a 'childbirth-friendly society' that aims to expand childcare, housing and health supports.
- Independent demographers warn the shift increases pressure on public pensions and on families to provide care, raising demand for paid elder-care services and straining local budgets for social security.
- The roots of the decline include the legacy of the one-child policy, urbanisation, high housing and childcare costs, job uncertainty and social gender expectations, and experts say demographic momentum means policy effects will be slow and uncertain.