Overview
- The Iran war that began on Feb. 28, 2026 triggered an oil supply shock that pushed buyers to the world market and prompted emergency responses from oil consumers and producers.
- Through June, Chinese crude imports were more than 40% lower than a year earlier according to Chinese customs data, a drop that freed up cargoes and helped blunt a large global price spike.
- Goldman Sachs and other analysts say Beijing sustained the import cut by tapping coal, oil and gas reserves, expanding use of renewables and relying on its large electric-vehicle fleet to reduce gasoline demand.
- Releases from wealthy countries’ strategic petroleum reserves and sharply higher U.S. crude exports worked together with China’s demand pullback to stabilize supply and prices.
- Early July data show a modest rebound in Chinese buying that could weaken China’s role as a global ‘shock absorber’ and, if it continues, is likely to tighten markets and lift fuel costs for consumers and importers.