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2mo ago

China’s Birth Rate Falls to Record Low as Population Declines for Fourth Straight Year

Experts warn structural forces outweigh incentives, leaving little prospect of a fertility rebound.

A woman lifts up a child in Beijing, China, on Jan. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
People catch a sight of the snow-covered Forbidden City from a pavilion with lantern decorations at the Jingshan Park a day after the snow fall, in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
FILE - A man holds a child as he walks past a propaganda billboard with the words "practice birth control to benefit the next generation," in the Front Gate area in Peking, China, Feb. 22, 1983. (AP Photo/Liu Heung Shing, File)

Overview

  • Official 2025 data from the National Bureau of Statistics show 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths, a net population drop of 3.39 million to about 1.405 billion.
  • The birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, confirming that a slight uptick in 2024 was not a sustained reversal of a decline that began in 2016.
  • Beijing has expanded pronatalist policies, including a national childcare subsidy of about 3,600 yuan per child under three, waived public kindergarten fees, and a pledge to fully reimburse pregnancy and IVF costs in 2026.
  • From January 1, contraceptives lost their VAT exemption and are now taxed at 13%, while marriage registration was liberalized in 2025; marriages fell over 20% in 2024 but saw an 8.5% uptick through the first three quarters of 2025.
  • China’s population is rapidly aging, with roughly 23% over 60 and projections of more than 400 million by 2035, raising pressure on pensions, healthcare, and the labor force.