Overview
- Chinese customs data show crude imports fell to about 7.8 million barrels per day in May, a steep drop from roughly 11 million bpd earlier in the year that helped take pressure off world markets.
- Energy Aspects and satellite tracker Kayrros report Beijing drew nearly 25 million barrels of commercial crude through June 7, and analysts at Vortexa, Kpler and Energy Aspects expect inventory draws to average about 1 million bpd in the coming months.
- State refiners have cut processing rates to multi‑year lows and fuel export limits have conserved domestic product supplies, actions that combined with rising EV use and more rail travel have materially reduced fuel demand.
- Smaller independent 'teapot' refiners that relied on discounted Iranian and Russian crude have been hit hardest and petrochemical feedstock tightness is already pushing some producer prices higher in China.
- Analysts warn the buffer is finite because stock estimates are opaque; if Beijing must rebuild strategic and commercial reserves while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, renewed large purchases could drive a significant price rebound later in 2026.