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China Sets 2026 Growth Target at 4.5–5% as Planners Outline Path to Deliver

Officials present the goal as a pivot to high‑quality, tech‑driven development in response to entrenched domestic headwinds.

Representative image | China’s breakneck economic growth, which once seemed as inevitable as a law of nature, is now being tested. | Commons
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BEIJING, CHINA - MARCH 5: Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Premier Li Qiang speak after Li's speech at the opening session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 5, 2026 in Beijing, China. China's annual political gatherings, which includes the important National People's Congress (NPC), and is known as the Two Sessions, convenes leaders and lawmakers to set the government's agenda for domestic economic and social development for the year. The meetings are expected to close by March 12th. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • At the Two Sessions, Beijing set a 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5%, the least ambitious annual goal since 1991.
  • The NDRC said output is expected to expand by over 6 trillion yuan this year and announced a national M&A fund designed to mobilize more than 1 trillion yuan in investment.
  • A five‑agency press conference detailed steps to boost demand and competitiveness, including a large 11.89 trillion yuan bond program, consumer trade‑in incentives, and efforts to balance imports and stabilize exports.
  • The draft 15th Five‑Year Plan stresses expanded market access and institutional opening, with pilots in value‑added telecoms, biotechnology and wholly foreign‑owned hospitals, plus a shorter negative list for services.
  • Analysts link the lower target to structural strains—property weakness, deflationary pressures and a shrinking workforce—alongside external risks from Middle East instability, even as strong 2025 exports produced a record trade surplus.