Overview
- Officials cited a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, as exports to ASEAN, Africa and the EU rose and shipments to the United States fell about 20%.
- Retail sales grew just 0.9% in December, signaling weak consumer demand alongside a strained labor market and falling home prices.
- Investment contracted, with fixed‑asset spending down 3.8% in 2025 and real‑estate investment dropping 17.2%, while December industrial output rose 5.2%.
- Demographic pressures deepened as the birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 and the population declined by roughly 3.39 million to about 1.405 billion.
- Analysts questioned the official figures—Rhodium estimated 2.5%–3.0% growth—while forecasts for 2026 eased to roughly 4.4%–4.8% and policymakers prepare a Five‑Year Plan centered on technological self‑reliance.